Nigeria Eyes Mature Gas Market by 2028 as NMDPRA Moves to Open Access, Digital Licensing
The Authority Chief Executive, Engr. Rabiu Umar, disclosed this on Wednesday in his opening remarks at the Gas Investment Forum 2026, themed “Positioning Nigeria as Africa’s Global Gas Powerhouse.”
Umar said the declaration of a mature market, which the law requires once certain conditions are met, will not come by pronouncement alone.
“As it is today, I do not believe we are there yet.
“In spite of the initial target of 2030, we are doing everything we can and pushing to see that by the 24th of September 2028, it will be there,” he said.
The ACE stated that NMDPRA is developing clear, measurable conditions for a full transition to a willing-buyer, willing-seller domestic gas market, to be judged on supply diversity, infrastructure access, contract performance, payment discipline, reliable market data and credible pricing.
“This is not going to be done by declaration alone. It will require real tests,” he said.
“The real test is that the gas must move from the access system that we have today, whereby you have fragmented infrastructure, to a point where there is truly an open access, whereby anybody can put their gas in the system,” Umar said.
He said the Authority is gridding the whole country, an exercise it will likely finish “sometime in October.”
He made a commitment that before the year runs out, the Authority will conduct a digital licensing round, whereby the same way people apply for OML in upstream, you will apply for a gas distribution licence based on the gridded areas that are available in the country.”
Speaking on the gas pipeline access, Umar said, “A pipeline that only a few can use, it’s not a market, it’s a gate.”
“The Authority is rebuilding the Nigerian Gas Transportation Network Code so that rules on injecting gas into pipelines and taking it out, including shrinkage factors, are “clear and consistently applied.”
He said a developer with a project as short as 20 kilometres “needs to be able to connect to that pipeline,” adding, “NMDPRA’s job is to make sure there is open access. That’s what the law says.”
The Authority has also signed a cooperation framework with the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) under the Anti-Competitive Practices and Behaviours Regulation 2026.
Umar said it sets “firm rules against price fixing, market sharing, abuse of dominance, capacity hoarding and discriminatory access, while still protecting investment and innovation.”
He said the aim is not to punish early investors.
“By law, we cannot have every single company having their own pipe all over the place,” he said, noting that an operator whose pipeline is full cannot be asked to give capacity it does not have.
Umar said the Authority is moving to digital licensing, electronic reporting and data-driven market monitoring “so that decisions are faster and evidence-based.”
He said, “Our commitment is to cut the licensing time, on whatever type of licence, by at least 50 per cent.”
He said applicants will not need to be in Nigeria.
“As long as an investor or a company meets all the requirements for a licence, then you can sit anywhere in the world, submit your documents, and as long as the conditions are met and the checklist is complete, you will get your licence,” he said, while stressing that “there is no investment objective that will ever override our safety, environmental integrity or operational discipline.”
Umar said investors worry most about “payment, supply reliability and pricing,” and described the regulator’s task as a balancing act.
“If I focus too much on the investment side, you might invest the money, but if the prices don’t work, there will not be an uptaker,” he said.
“If I focus too much on a low price, it will dry up the investments that people will make in the market. That’s why you need a regulator. Regulators are nothing but referees.”
He said a workshop with the Decade of Gas Initiative last week produced a declaration on the conditions for market maturity.
Umar said the country’s problem is not supply. “Nigeria does not have a gas shortage problem. Nigeria has a gas conversion problem,” he said.
He cited reserves of 213 trillion cubic feet (TCF), and said production is about 7 billion cubic feet per day (BCF/d) against a 2030 goal of 12 BCF/d.
“The question is how much of the gas that we have is coming out of the ground, and how much of it are we using?” he said.
“Gas in the ground does not power a factory. Gas in the ground does not cook a meal. It does not create a single job,” he said. “Resources become value only when they are connected to infrastructure.”
Describing the Decade of Gas Initiative as “an engine of execution,” he said the Authority is “accelerating licences and approvals for processing plants, pipelines, storage, CNG and LNG.”
He added, “Without infrastructure, reserves are potential. They will continue to be potential. With infrastructure, gas becomes productivity and national resilience.”
He welcomed discussions at the forum on floating LNG.
“A few years ago, when we said LNG, everybody in Nigeria thought LNG meant [NLNG], because that was the only company doing LNG,” he said. “Today, the case is different. We have LNG being used domestically. We have the likes of Greenville doing a lot.”
Umar said gas use delivers clear savings.
“If you look at CNG compared to petrol, you’re practically paying one third of what you would pay if you were using petrol,” he said. For factories that have moved off fuel oil and diesel.
“The maximum you find is that it will cost you half what it will cost you to use the wet fuels.”
He said projects such as AKK and OB3, along with the Greenville exercise, would drive adoption further. “Gas is going to be in Abuja before the [year] runs out,” he said.
He also said the Authority is working on a programme to deepen LPG use. “Very soon we will be in a position to announce a transformation that we’re driving,” he said.
Umar said the Authority is offering industry “clarity, fairness, consultation, firm decisions and firm enforcement,” and expects in return “credible projects, responsible investments, operational excellence, accurate data, safety discipline and long-term commitment.”
According to him, “We will hold you to yours.”
“Nigeria has the resources, policy direction, regulatory architecture and market demand to lead Africa’s gas future.
“What we need now is execution: project by project, pipeline by pipeline, contract by contract, community by community,” he said.
“NMDPRA will be your regulator, your convener and your market steward. Bring your serious projects, and we will help you build a transparent, competitive, safe and investable gas market worthy of Nigeria’s promise.”
