Global Fossil CO₂ Emissions to Fall to 20bn Tonnes by 2050 – Report
Global fossil carbon dioxide emissions are projected to decline to about 20 billion tonnes by 2050 from their current plateau of around 40 billion tonnes, under a new energy outlook by Rystad Energy.
The report, Global Energy Scenarios 2026: Pathways to Resilience, released on October 15, projects that the pace of emissions reduction will depend on how quickly countries adopt cleaner energy technologies, expand electrification and implement climate policies.
According to the report, the projected emissions trajectory under its Pragmatism scenario would result in cumulative emissions of about 800 billion tonnes of CO₂ between 2026 and 2050, contributing approximately 0.35 degrees Celsius of additional global warming.
The report noted that this trajectory would fall short of the Paris Agreement’s climate ambitions but remain significantly below emissions pathways previously considered business as usual.
It examined three possible futures for the global energy system: Pragmatism, which assumes a gradual strengthening of existing policies; Climate First, which envisages rapid and coordinated global action; and Fossil First, which assumes weaker policy support and slower progress in clean-energy technologies.
Under the Climate First scenario, global fossil CO₂ emissions are projected to fall to approximately two billion tonnes by 2050, with an estimated additional warming contribution of 0.25 degrees Celsius.
However, emissions would remain near current levels for longer under the Fossil First scenario, contributing approximately 0.45 degrees Celsius of additional warming.
Rystad Energy said cleaner electricity generation had delivered most of the progress in reducing emissions, while further gains would depend on expanding clean power and electrifying activities currently powered by fossil fuels.
The company’s Decarbonisation Index, which tracks three key areas of the energy transition, is projected to rise from the low 20 per cent range in the mid-2020s to above 60 per cent by 2050 under the Pragmatism scenario.
Under the same pathway, clean power penetration is expected to reach approximately 85 per cent, while electrification is projected to reach about 50 per cent.
The report highlighted growing policy support for electrification, citing the European Union’s indicative target of 46 per cent electrification by 2040.
It also referenced a proposal by the COP31 presidency to increase electricity’s share of global final energy demand to 35 per cent by 2035, following the COP28 focus on tripling renewable energy capacity.
Beyond emissions reduction, the report identified energy security as an increasingly important driver of the transition, particularly following Russia’s war in Ukraine and the US-Israeli war with Iran, which has severely disrupted energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
It said the crises had exposed vulnerabilities in global energy supply chains while accelerating interest in alternatives to imported oil and gas.
According to the report, electricity overtook oil in 2025 as the largest carrier of useful energy for direct fuel use. Its share is projected to rise from around 28 per cent currently to 41 per cent by 2050 under the Pragmatism scenario.
By mid-century, electricity is expected to provide more useful energy than coal, oil and gas combined.
The report also identified China as a major supplier of clean-energy technologies, including electric vehicles and batteries, as countries seek to reduce their exposure to disruptions in fossil fuel supplies.
However, it warned that the concentration of clean-technology manufacturing in China could create new energy security risks even as countries reduce their dependence on imported oil and gas.
China accounts for 96 per cent of global solar wafer capacity, 95 per cent of cathode material production, 91 per cent of rare earth refining, 88 per cent of solar cell production and 78 per cent of battery cell manufacturing, according to the report.
Rystad Energy said the transition was changing the nature of energy security risks, shifting dependence from continuous fuel imports towards imported equipment and materials that can generate or store energy for decades.
The report projected that global primary energy demand would reach 702 exajoules by 2050 under the Pragmatism scenario, reflecting continued growth in energy consumption despite improvements in efficiency and the expansion of electrification.
It also projected that global dependence on imported energy among importing countries would decline from around 40 per cent currently to 26 per cent by 2050 under the scenario.
However, the report warned that the long-term emissions outlook would depend on the balance between energy affordability, security and climate objectives, as well as the speed at which cleaner technologies become commercially viable.
