U.S. Becomes Net Crude Oil Exporter to Nigeria in Surprising Market Shift

In a rare turn of events, the United States became a net exporter of crude oil to Nigeria in February and March 2025, marking the first time in history that oil shipments from the U.S. to Nigeria surpassed those in the opposite direction.

According to a new note from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Tuesday, the shift was largely driven by increased crude demand from Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery — now one of the largest refineries in Africa.

“Gross U.S. exports of crude to Nigeria reached 111,000 barrels per day (bpd) in February and surged to 169,000 bpd in March,” the EIA report stated.
In contrast, Nigeria’s exports to the U.S. dipped significantly to 54,000 bpd in February and 72,000 bpd in March, down from 133,000 bpd in January.

🛢️ What Caused the Shift?

The change is attributed to several short-term factors, including:

Refinery maintenance on the U.S. East Coast, particularly at the Phillips 66 Bayway Refinery in New Jersey, which reduced U.S. domestic demand.

A rise in Nigeria’s appetite for U.S. crude, fueled by the Dangote Refinery’s full-scale operations, which began in January 2024.

According to the report, Dangote imported up to 10 million barrels of U.S. crude monthly to meet its ramp-up targets, with plans to reach 700,000 bpd capacity by December 2025.

“This is a reflection of a very fluid market, not necessarily a long-term trend,” said Eli Tesfaye, Senior Market Strategist at RJO Futures.
“The unique flows were largely due to Nigeria’s refinery start-up and temporary supply challenges.”

🔄 Will the Trend Continue?

Analysts suggest the reversal may not be permanent. Giovanni Staunovo of UBS noted that while the demand spike from Dangote is significant, the refinery is expected to increasingly rely on local and regional crude grades going forward.

“With the Bayway refinery now back online and Dangote undergoing some unplanned maintenance, the volumes from the U.S. may start to drop,” the report added.

Nigeria, once ranked 9th among U.S. crude suppliers, has long played the role of an oil exporter to America. This recent shift challenges that dynamic — at least temporarily.

📌 Key Takeaways:

• The U.S. exported more crude oil to Nigeria than it imported in February and March 2025.
• The Dangote Refinery is reshaping Nigeria’s crude sourcing strategy.
• This development is seen as temporary due to refinery maintenance and changing supply needs.