TotalEnergies has projected that its fourth-quarter 2025 results will broadly match last year’s performance, as robust refining margins and proceeds from asset sales in its renewables portfolio helped counter weaker oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices.

In a trading statement, the French energy major said cash flow from its business segments is expected to remain flat year-on-year, supported by increased upstream production and continued gains in downstream operations.

“The cash flow from business segments this quarter is expected to remain at the same level as last year, supported by accretive upstream production growth and continued improvement of downstream results,” the company said, according to Reuters.

TotalEnergies’ shares rose 0.73% to €56.54 in morning trade, outperforming the broader European energy sector, which slipped 1.2%.

Analysts noted that TotalEnergies stood out among global oil majors during the quarter, benefiting from a surge in refining margins while new upstream production supported cash generation. RBC Capital Markets analyst Biraj Borkhataria said the company was able to capitalise on short-term strength in refining, with upstream output contributing to cash flow growth.

He added that, based on RBC estimates, TotalEnergies’ year-on-year fourth-quarter cash flow from operations was flat, compared with a 19% decline recorded by Shell over the same period.

The performance comes as rivals such as BP and Shell earlier warned of weak oil trading results, following a drop in Brent crude prices to about $63.73 per barrel in the October–December period amid oversupply concerns.

TotalEnergies’ European refining margin indicator jumped to $85.7 per metric tonne in the fourth quarter, a 231% increase from a year earlier. In October, Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne said he expected European refining margins to rise due to U.S. sanctions and European Union restrictions on Russian energy supplies.

The company said results from its downstream marketing and services segment are expected to rise by around 5% year-on-year.

Upstream oil and gas production increased by 5% compared with a year earlier, helping to cushion the impact of lower crude prices. TotalEnergies said the decline in upstream results would amount to $6 per barrel, compared with the $11-per-barrel fall in crude prices over the period.

In contrast, integrated LNG results are expected to be flat compared with the third quarter but down 40% year-on-year, reflecting an 18% drop in LNG prices and planned maintenance at the Ichthys LNG project in Australia, which resumed operations in November.

Meanwhile, integrated power cash flow is forecast to rise in the fourth quarter, driven by the sale of minority stakes in renewable energy assets. The company said this would lift annual cash flow from the segment to about $2.5 billion.