OPEC+ to Boost Oil Output by 550,000 Barrels per Day in September as Supply Ramp-Up Continues

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) are poised to approve an oil production increase of approximately 550,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September. This move is part of an accelerated effort to unwind earlier voluntary output cuts and reflect the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) expanded production quota.

According to a report by Oilprice.com citing Reuters, five sources with knowledge of the internal discussions confirmed that the decision is expected to be finalized at the coalition’s next meeting, scheduled for August 3.

The anticipated increase would complete the phased return of 2.17 million bpd that was previously withheld by eight OPEC+ members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Algeria. The September adjustment also includes a 300,000 bpd quota boost for the UAE, granted in recognition of its large-scale investments to expand production capacity.

If confirmed, the increase will bring the total supply additions since April to 2.47 million bpd, representing nearly 2.5 percent of global oil demand.

Saudi Arabia is expected to raise its output to nearly 10 million bpd, while the UAE could hit a production level of about 3.375 million bpd. The UAE has long pushed for a higher quota, citing its production capability of over 4 million bpd.

Originally, OPEC+ had agreed in June 2024 to phase in the UAE’s quota increase by September 2025. This timeline was later shifted to September 2026, but the group has since fast-tracked its supply ramp-up, effectively returning to the initial schedule.

“With the group accelerating the unwinding process, the UAE is benefiting from this sped-up quota adjustment,” said Richard Bronze of Energy Aspects.

Despite the ongoing increases, OPEC+ still maintains a separate set of output cuts amounting to 3.66 million bpd. These include 1.66 million bpd in voluntary cuts and 2 million bpd in broader group-wide production limits, which are set to remain in place through the end of 2026.

OPEC+ has been curbing production in recent years to stabilise global oil markets. However, shifting market conditions and pressure from major consuming nations, particularly the United States, have prompted the group to gradually ease restrictions in 2025.

Since April, OPEC+ has steadily increased output with a 138,000 bpd hike followed by monthly additions of 411,000 bpd in May, June, and July. Most recently, the group approved a 548,000 bpd increase for August, continuing its path toward higher supply in the months ahead.