OPEC+ Signals Faster Oil Output Increases Amid Mounting Compliance Issues
The global oil landscape may soon shift again, as OPEC and its allies—collectively known as OPEC+—consider accelerating oil production increases over the coming months. This move comes amid growing frustration with member nations that are failing to meet their agreed production quotas.
According to a new report from Reuters, eight OPEC+ countries may begin phasing out their voluntary production cuts—totaling 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd)—by the end of October if compliance doesn’t improve.
This potential pivot follows OPEC+’s surprise decision in April to increase output, despite sluggish global demand and falling oil prices. The group, led by Saudi Arabia, made the move to send a clear message to members that have repeatedly fallen short of their obligations.
OPEC+ has already announced a significant output hike for June, bringing the combined increases for April through June to nearly one million bpd. Sources close to the talks say another 411,000 bpd boost is under discussion for July.
If key producers like Iraq and Kazakhstan continue to underperform, the group may accelerate further increases in August, September, and October—effectively ending the 2.2 million bpd voluntary cuts by November.
At present, OPEC+ is withholding close to five million bpd from the market, with some cuts set to remain in place until late 2026. However, in a decision made last December, the alliance agreed to start gradually phasing out voluntary cuts by September 2026. That timeline may now be moved forward significantly.
The shift comes at a time when oil prices have dropped to four-year lows—falling below $60 per barrel in April. The decline has been fueled by a surge in supply and mounting concerns over a global economic slowdown, especially following new U.S. tariffs.
Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the group, has reportedly informed its partners and energy industry players that it will not support oil prices by further restricting supply. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan has openly stated it will prioritize domestic energy demands over adherence to OPEC+ commitments.
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The Bottom Line
As compliance tensions rise within OPEC+, the alliance appears poised to prioritize output increases over price stability. Markets and policymakers will be watching closely in the weeks ahead, as these decisions could shape the global energy landscape for months to come.
