OPEC Oil Output Rises Modestly in May Amid Compensation Constraints, Reuters Survey Reveals
June 10, 2025 — Vienna, Austria
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) marginally increased its oil production in May 2025, reflecting the alliance’s cautious approach to supply management amid ongoing commitments to compensate for previous overproduction. According to a comprehensive Reuters survey released Monday, OPEC’s total oil output climbed by 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May, reaching 26.75 million bpd. However, the increase remained below potential due to compensation curbs, especially from key producers like Iraq and the United Arab Emirates.
The most notable contributor to the production hike was Saudi Arabia, which boosted its output by approximately 130,000 bpd. Despite this, Riyadh’s production still fell short of its official OPEC+ quota by 100,000 bpd, highlighting the group’s measured pace in restoring production following years of COVID-19-related disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties.
Under a pre-agreed plan involving eight OPEC+ members, including five OPEC countries — Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — a collective output increase of 310,000 bpd had been scheduled for May. However, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE were also obligated to enforce compensation cuts totaling 165,000 bpd to offset previous months of overproduction. As a result, the effective net increase among the five OPEC members was limited to 180,000 bpd.
Iraq, a consistent target of output compliance discussions, notably reduced its production in May to align with compensation mandates, the survey found. Meanwhile, the UAE also came in under its OPEC+ quota, reflecting relatively minor compensation requirements, according to insiders familiar with the matter.
Interestingly, a broad divergence persists in estimates of actual oil output from Iraq and the UAE. While OPEC and Reuters’ data suggest compliance with quotas, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and other external observers assert that these countries may be producing significantly more than reported.
The Reuters survey relies on a mix of flow data from financial analytics firm LSEG, shipping and tanker trackers such as Kpler, and insights from industry insiders, including oil companies and OPEC delegates. As the oil market watches closely for signs of demand resurgence and supply stability, these nuanced figures will continue to shape price expectations and strategic decisions across the globe.
As OPEC+ accelerates its unwinding of deep pandemic-era production cuts, balancing increased supply with the need for market stability remains a delicate task. The May output trend underscores the group’s strategic intent to honor its internal balancing act — gradually reopening the taps while holding members accountable for past excesses.
