Nigeria’s Oil Output Averages 1.46mbpd in 2025, Falling Short of OPEC and Budget Targets Despite Condensate Boost

Nigeria’s crude oil production averaged 1.46 million barrels per day (mbpd) between January and October 2025, falling short of the country’s output benchmark set by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), according to newly released data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

The figures highlight Nigeria’s ongoing struggle to consistently meet both its OPEC allocation and its ambitious federal budget production targets, despite periods of recovery in output and improved security in some producing areas.

Production Performance Over 10 Months

Data from the NUPRC show that Nigeria produced a total of 443.25 million barrels of crude oil during the first 10 months of 2025.

This level of production represents approximately 97 per cent of Nigeria’s 1.5mbpd crude oil quota under OPEC, underscoring persistent challenges in sustaining output at allocated levels.

A detailed month-by-month breakdown reveals fluctuating production trends throughout the year.

Crude oil output peaked in January, with production of 47.70 million barrels, before declining to a low of 41.02 million barrels in February. Production rebounded modestly in March and April and remained relatively stable through May, June, and July.

However, output moderated again in August and September, with October production standing at 43.44 million barrels.

Growing Role of Condensates

In addition to crude oil, Nigeria produced 60.55 million barrels of condensate between January and October 2025.

This comprised 17.38 million barrels of blended condensate and 43.17 million barrels of unblended condensate, reflecting the increasing contribution of condensates to Nigeria’s overall hydrocarbon output.

When combined, total crude oil and condensate production for the period reached 503.79 million barrels, translating to an average daily output of approximately 1.66mbpd.

Despite this boost from condensates, total output still fell short of the Federal Government’s 2025 budget benchmark of over two million barrels per day, which includes both crude oil and condensate.

Budget Shortfall and Revenue Implications

Based on the average production of 1.66mbpd, Nigeria missed its 2025 budget target by approximately 340,000 barrels per day, representing a shortfall of about 17 per cent.

The gap has significant implications for government revenue and foreign exchange earnings, given Nigeria’s heavy reliance on crude oil exports to fund the federal budget and stabilise the external reserves.

Further data from the NUPRC show that average daily oil production in October stood at 1.60mbpd, made up of 1.40mbpd of crude oil and approximately 196,000 barrels per day of condensate.

This placed Nigeria’s crude oil output for the month at about 93 per cent of its OPEC allocation.

Persistent Structural Challenges

The continued inability to meet production targets highlights the depth of structural and operational challenges facing Nigeria’s oil sector.

These include:

• Crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism

• Ageing infrastructure and underinvestment

• Operational disruptions and deferred maintenance

• Security challenges in some producing areas

Although the Federal Government has reiterated its commitment to boosting output through enhanced security operations, infrastructure rehabilitation, and regulatory reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act, the January–October figures suggest that progress remains uneven.

Condensate production, however, has provided some relief, helping to cushion the impact of crude oil shortfalls on total output figures.

Outlook for 2026

Looking ahead, the Federal Government has adopted a more conservative outlook for oil revenues in 2026.

According to the 2026 Appropriation Bill presented by President Bola Tinubu to a joint session of the National Assembly, the government is projecting oil revenue of approximately ₦60.97 trillion, lower than the level anticipated in the 2025 budget.

The projection is based on:

• A benchmark crude oil price of $64.85 per barrel

• Daily oil production of 1.84 million barrels

• An exchange rate assumption of ₦1,400 to the dollar

Fiscal analysts say the more cautious assumptions reflect lessons from recent production shortfalls and aim to reduce revenue volatility in the face of global oil market uncertainties.

As Nigeria navigates ongoing reforms in its oil and gas sector, sustained improvements in production, infrastructure reliability, and security will remain critical to meeting future fiscal and economic objectives.