Despite the commencement of operations at the Dangote Refinery, Nigeria has continued to rely heavily on imported petrol, bringing in about 15 billion litres—representing 69 per cent of the total 21.68 billion litres consumed between August 2024 and early October 2025. This is according to data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), the  Punch  reports.

The report, titled “Import vs Domestic Supply Performance (PMS Daily Average Supply – August 2024 to October 2025),” shows that only 31 per cent of total petrol supply during the 15-month period came from local refineries, despite a gradual rise in domestic production following the start of petrol output at the Dangote facility in September 2024.

In August 2024, imported petrol averaged 44.6 million litres per day and rose to 54.3 million litres per day in September, marking the peak of Nigeria’s import dependence during the period. However, imports began to decline steadily as the Dangote refinery ramped up output, falling to 24.15 million litres per day by January 2025, 19.26 million litres in September 2025, and 15.11 million litres within the first 10 days of October 2025.

Domestic refining recorded consistent growth within the same period. Local production, which stood at 6.43 million litres per day in September 2024, rose sharply to 22.66 million litres in January 2025 before stabilising around 20 million litres per day in subsequent months. By October 2025, the Dangote refinery was producing an average of 18.93 million litres per day, surpassing imports for that month.

The NMDPRA figures also revealed fluctuations in total petrol supply, which peaked at 60.73 million litres per day in September 2024 before dropping to 44.08 million litres in April 2025 and further to 34.04 million litres by October 2025. The data suggests a notable decline in daily national consumption from an average of 60.73 million litres per day in September 2024 to 34.04 million litres per day in early October 2025.

This downward trend followed the Federal Government’s full deregulation of the downstream petroleum sector in September 2024, which ended the petrol subsidy regime previously managed by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL).

While the rise in domestic refining indicates progress toward self-sufficiency, imports continued to dominate most of the review period. Marketers have accused the Dangote Refinery of stifling competition through aggressive pricing, even as the facility exports petrol to international markets, including the United States.

A monthly analysis of the data showed that January 2025 recorded the highest domestic production at 22.66 million litres per day, while August 2024 saw none, as Dangote was yet to begin operations. The highest total supply was recorded in September 2024 at 60.73 million litres per day, followed by October and November of the same year, which averaged 56.01 million and 55.75 million litres respectively.

By the end of the 15-month period, Nigeria had imported a total of 15.01 billion litres of petrol, while domestic refineries produced 6.67 billion litres, bringing total national supply to 21.68 billion litres. The figures underscore Nigeria’s ongoing transition in petrol supply, reflecting gradual gains in domestic refining capacity but also a continued dependence on imports to meet national demand.