Goldman Sachs Sees 1.9 Million bpd Oil Surplus in 2026, Prices Could Sink to $53
New York — Global oil markets could face a glut of nearly 2 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2026, as OPEC+ unwinds its output cuts and producers across the Americas ramp up supply, Goldman Sachs has warned.
In a note to clients on Sunday, the investment bank projected a 1.9 million bpd surplus—up from its previous forecast of 1.7 million bpd—citing both the planned 1.65 million bpd OPEC+ cut unwind and additional volumes from the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana.
“While a full 1.65 mb/d unwind is plausible, we assume the group will leverage its flexibility to pause quota increases from January 2026 under our assumption that OECD commercial stocks start rising noticeably in 2025 Q4,” Goldman’s commodity analysts wrote, according to Reuters.
Based on the expected oversupply, Goldman forecast Brent crude could fall to $53–$56 per barrel next year, though it cautioned that risks to the outlook were “two-sided but skewed modestly to the upside.”
At the time of writing, Brent was trading at $66.31 per barrel, buoyed by the threat of new sanctions on Russian crude that temporarily offset bearish sentiment following OPEC+’s decision to extend its gradual supply hikes.
So far this year, OECD oil inventories have remained below the five-year average, despite only modest stock builds. Bulls cite this as evidence against a looming glut, but Goldman suggested OPEC+’s decision to raise output was itself a recognition of the lower-than-normal storage levels.
With demand growth showing signs of flattening and new supply streams gaining momentum, the bank’s warning underscores a growing divide in the market: between those betting on tight inventories to support prices, and those bracing for a supply-driven correction.
