CBN Forecasts Petrol Price at About ₦950 Per Litre in 2026
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that the pump price of petrol could average about ₦950 per litre in 2026, according to its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria.
In its assessment of the domestic economy, the apex bank outlined baseline projections anchored on key assumptions, including an average crude oil price of $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $55 per barrel in 2026. The outlook also assumes an average exchange rate of ₦1,451.63 to the dollar in Q4 2025 and ₦1,400/$ in 2026, supported by a more efficient foreign exchange market, increased capital inflows, a current account surplus, and broader improvements in economic activity.
The CBN further assumed that Nigeria’s crude oil production would remain steady at about 1.5 million barrels per day throughout the forecast period. Under these conditions, the bank expects the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) to hover around ₦950 per litre in 2026, a level above current pump prices.
Explaining the rationale behind the projections, the CBN noted that global crude oil prices are expected to moderate due to rising inventories and the possibility of a supply glut, in line with forecasts by the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The outlook also assumes that government spending will align with the 2025–2027 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper, reflecting an expansionary fiscal stance aimed at supporting the Federal Government’s $1 trillion economy initiative.
In addition, the CBN projected a Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) of 27 per cent and a Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) of 45 per cent, noting that the macroeconomic outlook is underpinned by improving business confidence and stronger investor sentiment.
Currently, petrol prices have eased from earlier levels of around ₦900 per litre and above, following a reduction in gantry prices by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in December. The refinery cut prices from ₦828 to ₦699 per litre and subsequently set a pump price of ₦739 per litre through its retail partner, MRS Oil.
As MRS filling stations began selling petrol at ₦739 per litre in mid-December, other marketers were compelled to reduce prices to remain competitive and retain market share.
