Big Oil Faces Profit Squeeze in Q2 Despite Price Swings — Trading Divisions Remain a Mystery

Global oil and gas giants are bracing for weaker earnings in the second quarter of 2025, as falling crude prices take a toll on profits. Yet, when it comes to the trading arms of Big Oil, analysts and investors are still largely in the dark.

While oil price volatility often boosts profits in trading desks, this quarter’s wild price swings were driven more by geopolitics than by fundamentals — making it harder to capitalize on them.

“Volatility is usually good for trading,” explained Michele Della Vigna, head of Natural Resources Research for EMEA at Goldman Sachs,
“But because this time it was driven by geopolitical risk, it was more difficult to grab.”

He described the quarter as “not disastrous — but definitely a tougher one.”

📉 The Q2 Oil Price Rollercoaster

• April: Prices plunged 20% after President Trump’s surprise announcement of new tariffs.

• May: Oil surged 30% amid the Israel-Iran conflict.

• June: The gains were erased — and then some — by the end of the quarter.

The average oil price in Q2 was down 10% compared to the first quarter, making profitability a challenge for upstream operations across the board.

🏢 Trading Transparency Still Lacking

Despite investor interest, none of the top five oil majors — ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, Shell, and TotalEnergies — report trading profits as a standalone line item.

Here’s what we do know:

• BP anticipates an average performance in gas marketing and trading, but described its oil trading result as “strong.”

• Shell, on the other hand, warned of “significantly lower” returns from its trading and optimization activities this quarter.

Most majors have already signaled weaker quarterly earnings compared to both Q1 2025 and Q2 2024, pointing to lower average crude prices and unstable global market conditions.

🔍 Final Thoughts

While the energy sector navigates price volatility and geopolitical headwinds, the lack of transparency around trading divisions leaves many questions unanswered. For now, investors must brace for muted earnings and uncertain guidance as companies prepare their quarterly reports.