Africa’s Refining Boom Opens $100B Investment Window by 2030
CAPE TOWN – Africa is on the cusp of a major refining transformation, with 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of new capacity expected to come online by 2030, according to the latest OPEC World Oil Outlook. This expansion — one of the fastest globally — could unlock a $100 billion investment opportunity and reshape the continent’s role in global energy markets.
Nigeria is leading the charge with the 650,000-bpd Dangote Refinery, which began operations in 2024, and the planned 200,000-bpd Akwa Ibom Refinery. Angola is advancing two state-led projects — the 200,000-bpd Lobito and 100,000-bpd Soyo refineries — while Uganda is developing a 60,000-bpd plant in Hoima as part of its Lake Albert basin project.
Across West and Central Africa, modular refineries are also springing up in Ghana, Guinea-Conakry, the Republic of Congo and Nigeria, providing incremental capacity despite infrastructure and financing hurdles. North African producers are not left behind, with Algeria, Libya and Egypt all moving forward with refinery upgrades and new builds.
OPEC estimates that Africa will require over $40 billion in refining investments by 2030 to meet demand, with a further $60 billion needed beyond 2030 for modernization and secondary processing. This cumulative $100 billion opportunity positions Africa as a high-growth downstream frontier, especially as global refinery additions increasingly concentrate in Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and Africa.
Africa’s refining build-out is also underpinned by rising domestic demand. Crude consumption is projected to more than double to 4.5 million bpd by 2050, reducing exports and reinforcing the need for robust internal value chains.
These opportunities will take center stage at this year’s African Energy Week (AEW): Invest in African Energies conference in Cape Town, where governments, operators and financiers are expected to align on project pipelines, policy incentives and investment frameworks.
If Africa succeeds in seizing this momentum, analysts believe it could finally transition from being a raw crude exporter to a competitive, resilient and integrated downstream powerhouse.
Source: African Energy Chamber
